Just in case you have the winter blues...take this as a reminder that the time for baseball is drawing near.
4th place
Tony DeMarco, who writes the MSNBC baseball predictions, has slotted the Pirates for 4th place, with a 75-87 record. On the other hand, he has also predicted that the Reds will finish in 4th place with a 80-82 record. So...I guess he was just hedging his bet.
Defining success in 2005
Pre-season prognostications are starting to trickle in from the mainstream media, and if I had any faith that the national media knew anything about the Pirates, then I'd be awfully worried about their chances in 2005. It seems that most folks are impressed with the direction the Brewers are taking, which in the lazy mind pretty much relegates the Pirates to 6th place.
My opinion? I'd be surprised if the Pirates finished in last place. As a baseball fan in Pittsburgh, I know what a last place team looks like. The Pirates' roster just doesn't fit the bill. In order to finish 6th, you not only have to have a poor roster, but you also have to have a lot of bad luck in the form of injuries, collapses, and/or mid-season salary purges. I don't see many players on the Pirates roster suffering a serious regression (unless you think the season hinges on Jose Mesa). Nor do I see many key players being serious risks for injury, save Kip Wells.
My pick for last place? The Houston Astros. Yes, that's going out on a limb. And yes...the Astros have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Pirates. But I see risk up and down their roster. Biggio, Bagwell, and Clemens are all serious risks for falling off the shelf. Their best remaining hitter, Berkman, had serious knee surgery and might not be ready for the start of the season. Also at risk of injury...their #3 pitcher, Pettitte. And I have to believe that Lidge put some serious strain on his arm pitching about 116 innings in relief last season. Did I mention that the Astros lost 2 all stars in the off-season? (Kent, Beltran) So, add it all up and I can totally see a couple of injuries combining with a slow start yada yada yada, we know the drill.
Anyway, so I don't think the Pirates will finish in last place. But I also don't think they will sniff the top of the division. So, if we can't expect a championship in town this season, how can we define success for 2005? I've identified 5 indicators that I'll track to help determine whether or not the Pirates' 2005 season was successful.
(in no particular order)
#1. Jose Castillo shows enough progression that it's reasonable to think he'll realize his potential.
#2. Kip Wells has an injury-free season that allows him to re-establish his 2003 level of performance.
#3. The Pirates end the season knowing exactly who will play 3rd base in 2006.
#4. Jason Bay does not have to play CF.
#5. Someone from the Vogelsong, D. Williams, Snell, Bradley bunch establishes himself in the rotation.
Of course, there are many other things to look for in 2005... like what level will Jack Wilson establish and how will the catching situation play out. And there is always the unknown that can't really be predicted... like half the team blows out an ACL and the other half gets suspended for steroids. But those are the 5 things that I think are reasonable goals for the season. And my prediction for the Pirates' final rank? 4th place. And I've never been accused of being an optimist.
Pirate Salaries
I don't maintain my links as often as I should. So I added a new link to a Pirate blog called
Let's Go Bucs.
On that site, you can find the contract status of all the Buccos. Thanks for the great info!
Pirates' TV Schedule
You can finally set your summer picnic schedule...the 2005 Pirates' TV schedule is out. Check it out
here.
Hey Amos...
I was checking out a list of 'lost' persons that are owed money by the IRS, and came across the name Amos Zereoue. So, a shout out to Amos....click on this
link and see for yourself. Then give me a call and I'll let you know a fair way to split that check.
