Defining success in 2005
Pre-season prognostications are starting to trickle in from the mainstream media, and if I had any faith that the national media knew anything about the Pirates, then I'd be awfully worried about their chances in 2005. It seems that most folks are impressed with the direction the Brewers are taking, which in the lazy mind pretty much relegates the Pirates to 6th place.
My opinion? I'd be surprised if the Pirates finished in last place. As a baseball fan in Pittsburgh, I know what a last place team looks like. The Pirates' roster just doesn't fit the bill. In order to finish 6th, you not only have to have a poor roster, but you also have to have a lot of bad luck in the form of injuries, collapses, and/or mid-season salary purges. I don't see many players on the Pirates roster suffering a serious regression (unless you think the season hinges on Jose Mesa). Nor do I see many key players being serious risks for injury, save Kip Wells.
My pick for last place? The Houston Astros. Yes, that's going out on a limb. And yes...the Astros have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Pirates. But I see risk up and down their roster. Biggio, Bagwell, and Clemens are all serious risks for falling off the shelf. Their best remaining hitter, Berkman, had serious knee surgery and might not be ready for the start of the season. Also at risk of injury...their #3 pitcher, Pettitte. And I have to believe that Lidge put some serious strain on his arm pitching about 116 innings in relief last season. Did I mention that the Astros lost 2 all stars in the off-season? (Kent, Beltran) So, add it all up and I can totally see a couple of injuries combining with a slow start yada yada yada, we know the drill.
Anyway, so I don't think the Pirates will finish in last place. But I also don't think they will sniff the top of the division. So, if we can't expect a championship in town this season, how can we define success for 2005? I've identified 5 indicators that I'll track to help determine whether or not the Pirates' 2005 season was successful.
(in no particular order)
#1. Jose Castillo shows enough progression that it's reasonable to think he'll realize his potential.
#2. Kip Wells has an injury-free season that allows him to re-establish his 2003 level of performance.
#3. The Pirates end the season knowing exactly who will play 3rd base in 2006.
#4. Jason Bay does not have to play CF.
#5. Someone from the Vogelsong, D. Williams, Snell, Bradley bunch establishes himself in the rotation.
Of course, there are many other things to look for in 2005... like what level will Jack Wilson establish and how will the catching situation play out. And there is always the unknown that can't really be predicted... like half the team blows out an ACL and the other half gets suspended for steroids. But those are the 5 things that I think are reasonable goals for the season. And my prediction for the Pirates' final rank? 4th place. And I've never been accused of being an optimist.
11 Comments:
you optimist
If you see anybody not from Pittsburgh predicting a better finish, let me know!
just accusing you of being an optimist.
ok, here's how i see it. let's just say that everything goes right for the pirates (no injuries, everyone performs at their expected levels, with a couple performing slightly above) and all the other teams play 'average' meaning they play at their expected levels.
Cubs pitching will carry them.
Cards are still an all around threat.
Astros...i don't buy your theory...they have the scratch to spend to get what is needed in a trade if they start to slide. Although injuries could happen at any time I don't see it happening with the magnitude you predict. Everyone thought their season was over when AP went down.
I honestly think the Reds are a team on the rise. they had some bad luck last year and if they can avoid that and learn how to play in the Pretty Good American Ballpark they will make things close
Which leaves us the Brewers. Just b/c they're the Brewers, I'm putting them 6th with the pirates a close 5th.
1 Cards
2 Cubs
3a Reds
3b Stros
5 Yinzers
6 Millers
Having said that - the NL Central is still the worst division in baseball. Its like the Steelers winning the division each year. Pretty much we're just saying we're better than the Ravens - does Cleveland and Cincy count? So you have Cards/Cubs/Stros battling with the Reds/Bucs/Brews struggling - and at any time you can take cubs or stros and subsitute them with the reds.
People never call me an optimist either but I honestly don't see it happening this year with the bucs. sure, they'll provide some exciting games (the memorial day DH last year with Mackowiack's walk offs was the best 2 games i've ever been to besides seeing Mickey Morandini's unassisted triple play as a kid). If they come in fourth...it will be by a hair. maybe cincy or stros have a bad run and bucs get hot at the end like they usually do but by memorial day or at the latest flag day, the pirates will be lost.
I think that the Pirates will beat out at least 2 out of the Brewers, Reds, and Astros. I'm willing to bet that the Astros first half is a true measure of their talent, and the second half was simply a last gasp. I'm not sold on the Reds pitching, and the Cubs certainly don't look improved to me, though full seasons from Prior and Wood would keep them afloat.
ok...i guess all we can do is put this in BFab's "you heard it here first" folder and open it in October?
Bottom line - 4th or 5th place is the difference between the 3rd and 4th loser so for us to argue who will beat the pirates this year is useless.
I like the argument that the Steelers shouldn't be thrilled to win the division each year, because the division blows. Where have I heard that argument before?
Even though the Pirates will finish 5th, their park still rules.
--DIG
yeah nice stadium, but i can take a dump in a box and wrap it up nice and pretty...it doesn't change what's inside the box.
Try sitting in Fenway for a season. Awesome sight lines, and 20 feet from the action, but it takes a beating on your body. The seats were made for 1920's body sizes, and if you're taller than 5'7", you're hosed. Concessions blow, too. For a total game experience (minus the team playing), PNC is one of the better parks that I've been to. I'm just talking the park. For being close to the action and really feeling baseball, nothing beats Fenway, however. Nice Tommy Boy quote, though.
Try sitting in Fenway for a season. Awesome sight lines, and 20 feet from the action, but it takes a beating on your body. The seats were made for 1920's body sizes, and if you're taller than 5'7", you're hosed. Concessions blow, too. For a total game experience (minus the team playing), PNC is one of the better parks that I've been to. I'm just talking the park. For being close to the action and really feeling baseball, nothing beats Fenway, however. Nice Tommy Boy quote, though.
just a tommy boy inspired quote...
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