More alarming news
2 pieces of alarming news for the Bucs...
First, according to team sources, Jon Van Benschoten has been shut down for the year due to shoulder fatigue. Although this seems like yet another setback against the Pirates' plan to build with young arms, I'm not too concerned over this. While shoulder stiffness is nothing to sneeze at, I think its a great idea for the Pirates to shut down JVB for the year. (I think they might want to give him some AB at 1b, but that's a topic for another day.) Don't forget that JVB was a short reliever in college, therefore it's not surprising that he should start to wear down at this point in the season. Every year he should get marginally stronger.
I'm still alarmed by what I perceive to be poor mechanics. I think he may be headed for trouble down the road if he doesn't reduce the stress on his arm by using more of his lower body. It wil be interesting to see if he arrives in spring training with some improved mechanics. Of course, I haven't heard anyone on the Pirates staff or in the local media say a word about this, so I'm sure he won't.
The other bit of bad news was the report that Kip Wells had a third MRI on his 'inflamed' elbow and is sending the results to Dr. James Andrews. According to team doctors, his injury has improved with rest, but Wells requested another MRI. I see 2 possible outcomes:
#1. Dr. Andrews says that there is no damage to the ligaments in Wells' elbow, and prescribes rest and rehab in the off season. Wells follows the treatment, shows up in spring training, and has his elbow flare up after his 2nd or 3rd spring start. He then has Tommy John and is never seen in a Pirates uniform again as his contract expires while he is rehabbing.
#2. Dr Andrews recommends that Wells have surgery right away. Wells isn't seen back on the mound until spring training 2006.
Either way, anytime you hear the words "Dr. James Andrews", "third MRI", and "inflamed elbow" all in the same report, you can pretty much assume its cutting time. In fact, now may be a good time to read the article I linked earlier today.
New digs
Omblog got a facelift. Hopefully you like it better.
I'm still working out some formatting kinks. But the basic design is probably here to stay for awhile.
Tommy John details
I try hard not to be one of the blogs that simply posts a link and says 'look what so and so said about so and so.' Those blogs have their place I suppose, but they don't really contribute any new information. Instead I try to come up with my own ideas for blurbs or at least offer an opinion or analysis on topics I find on the web.
In this case however, I'll simply post this
link to a terrific article that describes in detail the Tommy John surgery that is almost ubiquitous in baseball. You can read the article for free at Baseball Prospectus. Check it out.
Ed Eagle on Bay for ROY
MLB.com has dual (duel) articles posted
here that deal with the Jason Bay/Khalil Greene ROY debate. The only thing I'll say about this contrived 'debate' is that it's obvious who should be ROY to anybody who has a rudimentary understanding of the way our decimal number system works. While I won't say anything more about who should be ROY, I did want to comment on some of the things said about Bay.
Offensively, Bay has no peers in his class. Despite missing the first month of the season while recovering from shoulder surgery, Bay leads all Major League rookies in home runs (24), RBIs (75), slugging percentage (.576) and OPS (.946). He's also ranked third in batting average (.294) and second in on-base percentage (.370).
Comparing Bay to this year's crop of first-year players really doesn't do him justice. Bay has quietly -- apparently too quietly, considering the amount of national exposure he has received -- put together a season that few rookies have ever matched at the plate.
True 'dat. Those are some amazing numbers for a rookie. Eagle goes on to point out that Bay's current slugging percentage would place 3rd all time among rookies. That's remarkable! However, Eagle misses an obvious matter. The reason Bay is not getting alot of attention, even from the local Pittsburgh media, is that he is an 'old' rookie having turned 26 yesterday.
Studies have concluded that the average major league player peaks around age 27. This obviously doesn't hold true for all players, but it's reasonable to conclude that when a player reaches the age of 27, he is about as good as he is going to get. Therefore, having already turned 26, how much improvement can we project onto Bay? It's hard to tell, but we can take a guess.
Clearly some players peak in their 30's. If Bay is one of those players, perhaps we can expect him to build on his power numbers slightly for the next couple of years, improve his walk rate, and cut down on his strike outs. However, being 26, it's highly unlikely that he will make that jump to the next level of performance. Frankly, he probably only has room for a marginal improvement rather than a 'leap' that you so often see with younger players. On the plus side, Bay is already an excellent player, so we can gladly pencil his name into the Buc's lineup for the next few years.
Later in the article, Eagle shoots himself in the foot a bit, talking about defense:
Overall, Bay's defensive numbers stack up with just about any outfielder in the National League, rookie or otherwise. His .990 fielding percentage is good for eighth in the league. Because he has the speed to play center field, and may switch to that position someday, Bay easily patrols the spacious PNC Park left-field expanse.
...
First off, as I mentioned earlier, who you play for doesn't matter when it comes to the Rookie of the Year Award. This isn't like the Most Valuable Player Award, where a player with lesser stats gets extra credit points for helping his team to earn a playoff bid. To reiterate, The Rookie of the Year Award is presented each year to the player who has the best season at the plate, in the field or on the mound during their first year of eligibility.
Secondly, Greene, while certainly a solid defender, hasn't exactly been Ozzie Smith in the field this season. His .965 fielding percentage ranks 10th among NL shortstops, and only Rafael Furcal and Kaz Matsui have committed more errors at the position.
There is so much wrong with Eagle's analysis that I barely know where to start. First, even small children who play the game know that fielding percentage is probably the most misleading statistic in the game. Granted, defensive metrics are not well understood by the casual baseball fan, but someone who makes a living writing about baseball should at least understand that fielding percentage is pretty much meaningless when comparing players who play the same position. Eagle compounds his error by using the metric to compare players from different positions!!
Next, Eagle says that the ROY is different from the MVP because voting should be judged strictly on the performance of the player, independent of the context of his team. I agree that it should be judged that way, but since when is the MVP supposed to be judged in team/division context? It's supposed to be awarded to the player judged most valuable to his team. It's that kind of assinine thinking that convinces people to say that 'If the Giants make the playoffs, Barry Bonds gets my MVP vote, otherwise it's Albert Pujols.'
In the final analysis, the ROY is not about who will probably end up being the better player in the long run nor is it about who played for a contending team. It's strictly a question of what rookie had the best season. Clearly, its Jason Bay.
CBS 'news'
The New York Times is
reporting that CBS is going to announce that they were misled with regard to the National Guard documents.
It's not so hard to believe that CBS could be deceived. When you want something to be true, and you are sure its true anyway, then your BS detector gets clogged and you are prone to accept blindly any evidence that confirms your belief. Confirmation bias is a very powerful thing.
Hopefully, somebody's head will roll over this. Whose going to take the bullet for Dan Rather?
Encouraging signs
When you hear about the Pirates bevy of young arms, there's one guy that always gets a mention at the end of the list. Guys like Van Benschoten, Bullington, Burnett, Snell, Duke always get mentioned first. Only then do you sometimes here the name Dave Williams tossed out there as an afterthought. However, of the guys I've just mentioned, Williams is the only one that has had success for an extended period of time at the major league level.
Take a look at his stats this season:
(8 Games, 4 Starts)
2-1, 3.64 ERA, 29.2 IP, 19 H, 8 BB, 23 K
Those are some impressive numbers (small sample size caveats apply.) Williams is only 25, has already gotten his Tommy John out of the way, and is a lefty. His peripherals are outstanding (.91 WHIP, 7+K per 9) and he is keeping the ball in the park (2 HR). What's not to like?
Considering that soft-tossing lefties are typically late developers, I think the Pirates may have a gem on their hands. Hopefully they have the good sense not to pay Fogg's arbitration figure and give his innings to Williams next year.
