Comments...
I wanted to thank those of you who post comments because it's very interesting to me to hear what other people have to say. Especially if you disagree or have a different take. If you do, it's likely that I'll post a reply in the comments section, so be sure to check back occasionally.
More to come...
Swift kick in the arse
Yesterday news broke that the Swift Boat Veterans for ‘Truth’ were using an advisor/lawyer from the Bush campaign, despite the protestations from the Bush camp that they have nothing to do with the infamous 527 organization. (The old Sergeant Shultz defense…”I know nothing…. NNNOOOOTHING!”) Today, CNN reports that Bush campaign advisor, Benjamin Ginsburg, resigned from the campaign citing the flap caused by his association with the SBVT. Here’s the punch line from the
article…
Campaign adviser Terry Holt told CNN that the Bush-Cheney campaign learned Tuesday of Ginsberg's double duty.
HAAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAAAAA HAAAAAAA!! That is a good one.
So let’s review. The Bush campaign has nothing to do with the SBVT. Meanwhile people very closely involved with the campaign are:
- funding the group – Dick Cheney’s close personal friend and major Bush campaign contributor Bob Perry is the primary SBVT financier
- appearing in TV ads for the group – Col. Ken Fordier resigned his post as advisor to the campaign after appearing in a SBVT ad
- legally advising the group – Benjamin Ginsburg as noted above.
Projecting Jason Bay
I’m surprised that more hasn’t been said or written about the type of season Pirates “rookie” Jason Bay is having. I put rookie in quotation marks because he is only a rookie according to the letter of the law set forth by MLB. In reality, he received fairly significant playing time last season and is advanced enough in age (25) that I hardly consider him on the same developmental level as most other rookies such as John Van Benschoten. Lumping Bay and guys like BJ Upton into the same group for comparison purposes is hardly fair to Upton. Regardless, he’s having a remarkable year, especially when you consider that he missed significant portions of the first half recovering from a shoulder injury. Back, wrist, and shoulder injuries are poison to a hitter, especially with regard to hitting for power. But Bay has shown little or no ill effects from his off season surgery. Give credit to the Pirates for easing Bay back into the lineup, thus avoiding debilitating flare ups. Credit also goes to Bay for a successful rehabilitation.
That said, I’m left wondering what we can expect from Bay for the next couple of years. Let’s take a quick look at his rate stats for this season:
AVE/OBP/SLG = .306/.374/.580
That’s pretty darn good. Bay currently has somewhere around 280 at bats, and while that’s a fairly small sample size with which to make career projections, it is enough that the league has had ample time to scout Bay and make adjustments to take advantage of his weaknesses. It’s not unusual for young players to start hot and cool off as teams figure out their weaknesses. While I don't have his month by month statistics, this doesn’t seem to be happening to Bay.
Next, let’s compare his performance to a list of performances from contemporary superstars during their age 25 season: (keep in mind some of these players had several MLB seasons under their belt by age 25.)
A - .301/.406/.565
B - .355/.434/.612
C - .290/.352/.536
D - .328/.415/.538
E - .301/.349/.510
As you can see, Bay stands up pretty well to these 5 contemporary superstars. Who are they?
A – Barry Bonds
B – Brian Giles
C – Jim Edmonds
D – Manny Ramirez
E – Magglio Ordonez
I selected these 5 players off the top of my head, so this is by no means a representative sample. However, I noticed something peculiar about all of these players except Manny Ramirez. The peculiar similarity is that the other 4 players had their breakouts during their age 25 season. For reasons unknown to god, Giles was relegated to platoon duty for another season before he was liberated by the Pirates, but those 4 players, for the first time, had what could be described as a break out season. Manny actually had his breakout at age 23, but I leave it to you to determine if Manny was really 23 and not 25 when he had his breakout. Those Dominican birthdates often seem to be determined by a random number generator.
Of these players, Giles seems to be the best ‘comp’ for Bay in terms of career development. Both were probably kept in the minors a little bit longer than was necessary, and therefore both were fairly old when they got their first full time MLB job. In terms of skills sets, Bay probably matches up best with Edmonds. Both hit for very good but not great power. Both maintain high, but not very high averages. Both have a fair amount of speed but don’t steal tons of bases. And both have a terrific propensity for striking out. No matter who you think Bay most resembles on this short list of players, there is one thing that I should point out. The average MLB hitter peaks around his age 27 season. All of the players on this list peaked beyond their 27th birthday, and appear to be aging very well.
If Bay follows the career path of any of these players, the Pirates will have another superstar to complement the already dominant Oliver Perez for several years.
Makeup game
The US softball team just completed an unbelievable run in the olympics, outscoring their oponents 51-1. What's even more unbelievable is the amount of makeup the players caked on their faces while they were playing the game. I was stunned when I saw replays of the game and closeups of the players. I can understand (maybe) running to the dugout and slapping on some makeup for the medal ceremony or for post game interviews. But these gals were plastered with the stuff while they were playing. 1 more reason why I don't pay attention to women's sports. I'm sorry if that makes me chauvinist, I just think that the olympics should be about the sport, not about the photo op. (And please don't post that Jenny Finch is hot. Yes, we all know she is young, she is blond, and she is good at softball.)
Beating a dead manager
I haven’t had much chance to post since last week, but I can sum up the Cardinal series and last night’s game with the following well worn points:
- Just because the press calls Mesa the team’s closer, doesn’t mean he always needs to pitch the 9th inning when the Pirates have a lead. If he is struggling (and clearly he’s beyond struggling right now) let someone else grab a save or two. It doesn’t make sense to manage according to labels, and not according to who gives you the best chance to win.
- John Grabow has had a fine season, but why oh why does he continue to get the high leverage innings that call for a left hander. Mike Gonzalez has been excellent this year. Give him more opportunities in the clutch.
- John Van Benschoten remains the Pirates best hitting prospect. He might even be a good enough hitter to deserve a roster spot with the Pirates right now.
- Kip Wells – elbow, out indefinitely. Sean Burnett – elbow, out indefinitely. I’ll say it again….trying to build primarily through pitching is a dangerous proposition for small budget teams because so many young pitchers end up blowing a tire on the way to stardom.
Physical courage and moral cowardice
I wish I had the time and talent to write what I think needs to be said about the whole ‘What was John Kerry doing in Vietnam?” debacle. In the spirit of George W Bush, I’ll simply let someone else do it. The following was posted today at the excellent blog
Talking Points Memo. Once again, Josh Marshall pretty much says it all. You can read the entire post
here. This is just a brief pithy excerpt:
The current debate about these two men's military service has put the spotlight on physical courage. But that really is a side issue in this campaign, if we're talking substance. The real issue isn't physical bravery but moral cowardice.
President Bush is an exemplar of that quality in spades. And it cuts directly to his failures as president. Forget about thirty years ago, just think about the last three years.
Before proceeding on to that, one other point about the two men's service. On the balance sheet of moral bravery, as opposed to physical bravery, the two men are about as far apart as you can be on Vietnam. On the one hand you have Kerry, who already had doubts about whether we should be fighting in Vietnam before he went, and put his life on the line anyway. On the other hand, you have George W. Bush who supported the war, which means he believed the goal was worth the cost in American lives. Only, not his life. He believed others should go; just not him. It's the story of his life. That is almost the definition of moral cowardice.
Take another look...
...at the AL East race. The Yankees are a flawed team. Gary Sheffield's shoulder is staying attached with Elmer's glue and chicken wire. Their rotation is dangerously thin and depends on brittle Kevin Brown. The Red Sox are back to 5.5 games out, so don't call this race over yet.
Snell game
So the Pirates call up Ian Snell, give him 1 appearance in relief, then send him back down and let Nelson Figeuroa start Friday night. What is going on here?
