Steroids and the HOF
So we know that Jose Canseco is never going to make an acceptance speech at Cooperstown. But the recent allegations could have a direct impact on a number of candidates. No matter what you may think about the whole steroid mess, it's seems as if a large number of the old school types who are the typical HOF voters have put a great deal of emphasis on the scandal.
I have no doubt that the recent allegations will cost Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire a number of votes. But both of those guys are going to be 1st ballot HOF unless proof comes out that they were injecting little leaguers with HGH.
Until the recent allegations came out, Rafeal Palmeiro was also a lock to be a 1st ballot HOFer. But if these allegations about him end up having any teeth, I think he'll have to wait before he eventually gets in. Similarly, Pudge Rodriguez, if he retired today, might not get in because of the allegations. But I think with a couple of more good seasons, he'll end up in the same boat as Palmeiro.
Ironically, the steroid allegations may actually help a couple of players reach the HOF. I believe that Fred McGriff's career will be seen in a whole new light. Rather than "the player who couldn't get to 500 in the home run era", he'll become "the player who almost got to 500 even without steroids." Voters looking to make a morality play out of the vote will likely look to reward someone like McGriff or Craig Biggio, who are free and clear of any steroid allegations.
In another interesting twist, I couldn't help but notice that it's suddenly become trendy to look favorably upon the character of Ken Griffey Jr. again, a 1st ballotter already anyway, as he is far removed from the steroid rumors.
It's amazing how quickly a 15 year career can be colored one way or the other by rumor and innuendo.
MBB guest post
3 cheers for Jeff Angus at Management by Baseball! It took me about 6 weeks to produce the article I promised him, but only about 12 hours for him to polish it up and make it a decent read. Go
check it out.
Blogger predictions
Charlie over at the fine Pirate blog
Value Over Replacement Blog has posted his preview of the NL Central, and has predicted nothing but bad things for the Bucs. Here I thought I was a pessimist!
I certainly agree that contention is not around the corner. But I found some of Charlie's criticism unfair. For example, Charlie uses the fact that many players last year performed significantly better than was expected. But the players he cites (other than Mesa, let's not go there) are all young. Did Perez, Bay, J.Wilson, and Gonzalez have career years or did they merely attain new levels of performance? I don't think we can expect all of those players to repeat or better their 2004 performances, but after years of having young players not meet their potential, let's not punish the Pirates for having players who did.
Charlie also criticizes the Pirates 2 biggest off-season acquisitions. He says the following about Matt Lawton:
"Matt Lawton's defense will drive the Bucs' pitchers nuts, and his hitting is
nothing to write home about."
Let's look at this acquisition in context. Lawton will probably spend the majority of his time playing RF. This will shift Craig Wilson to first base. In 2004, Wilson got the majority of the team's RF at bats, while 1b was largely split between Randall Simon and Daryle Ward. No matter how poor Lawton is defensively, the combination of Lawton/Wilson is vastly superior boh offensively AND defensively to the combination of Wilson/Simon/Ward.
Next, he has this to say about Mark Redmen:
"Mark Redman will be capable but uninspiring in the rotation."
OK...that's likely to be true. Then again, Redmen is the Bucs #3 starter. How many teams experience inspiration from the #3 spot on a regular basis?
I found the rest of Charlie's analysis of the Pirates and the NL Central to be pretty much on the money. I just thought he was a bit tough on the ol'Bucs.
Littlefield Q&A
OK...so I had roughly a 1,000 word post about the latest David Littlefield interview, and blogger made it disappear like Enrique Romo. If you've been blogging for any length of time, it's probably happened to you too. So....here is another shot at it.
Ed Eagle has conducted yet another interview with Littlefield for mlb.com. Whatever you think about Littlefield's performance, and I give him a C+, you have to commend him for being one of the most accessible GM's in the league. Now if only he would return my phone calls, emails, letters, and candy-grams....
Back to business. One of Littlefield's answers caught my attention. Eagle posed the following:
"Will any additional money that is not used for payroll this season carry over
to the 2006 payroll?"
Littlefield's answer:
"In baseball operations we are given a budget to work with, and as a general manager I want to use those resources to help the team get better in 2005. The ownership group who I report to, Kevin McClatchy, is 100 percent committed to trying to win and put every dollar available to help the team win. I anticipate using the dollars available to help this team get better in 2005."
I ran that answer through my patented GM translation software and came up with the following translation: "No. We will spend every last penny this year."
Truth is, I'm mostly ok with that answer. I'd even be ok with it if he said he won't spend any more this season and the savings will not carry over. As long as ownership puts forth a good faith effort to win a championship, I don't hold it against them if they don't spend up to the budget limit in a rebuilding year (and yes, this is yet another rebuilding year). Conversely, if the Pirates ever find themselves in a position to win a championship, I fully expect the ownership to stretch the budget a bit.
I've said it time and time again...the goal of a team is to win a championship. Period. It takes a bit of luck and a lot of talent to win one. The Pirates simply do not have enough scratch left in the budget to get the talent for this season to a level where they can sit back and let luck do its thing.
I almost wish that the Pirates budget was already tapped out. The worst thing that can happen is to spend the money on stop-gap veterans. I'm all for winning as many games as you can, but there's no point in spending resources (cash or prospects) that might one day be used to win a championship in order to get a 77 win team to 80 wins. Would you rather:
- Finish in 5th place while finding out if Mike Gonzalez can close and JR House can catch
or
- Finish in 4th place and find out if Jose Mesa and Benito Santiago have anything left in the tank
Well, Littlefield has already chosen the latter for this season. I hope he puts the checkbook away and lets the kids play.
---
About a month ago, I was asked by Jeff Angus from the excellent
Management by Baseball site to contribute a guest article on a topic similar to the above post. A dozen emails, 6 trips to the hospital, and 1 surgery later, I have almost completed it. I'll let you know when the article has been posted, but it's worth your while to check MbB daily for a great read and a great lesson.
It's official
I'm a square.
I'm watching the Grammy's and the first award they give out is best performance by a pop group or duo or something like that. I only recognized the name of one of the groups, ie No Doubt. And the song they were nominated for is a mediocre remake of a 20 year old pop song that never would have sniffed a top 20 list from the year it originally came out. Popular music has lost me forever.
I think I'll go dust off a classic
Fleetwood Mac Police Marvin Gaye album and shed a few quiet tears.
.
.
.
Wait a second....Alicia Keys may have just saved all our souls. The flicker is faint, but it's still there.
