Monday, August 16, 2004

Smart hitting

Ed Eagle has a not very interesting article here about the Pirates' struggles against left handed starters. Don't waste your time reading the article. I did read it though, and was astounded by some figures he reported on the Pirates swinging at first pitches. The following is a list of some players and the percentage of times they swing at the first pitch:

Bobby Hill: 34.2%
Randall Simon: 36.4%
Daryle Ward: 36.6%
Rob Mackowiak: 36.9%
Jose Castillo: 41.0%
Craig Wilson: 41.3%
Ty Wigginton: 44.3%
Abraham Nunez: 53.1%
...
Jason Kendall: 2.8%

The first thing that hit me was "WOW...THAT'S A LOT OF FIRST PITCH SWINGING!" That's just an impression though. In order to form an informed opinion, we should compare these numbers to the rest of the league. So I did a little research and came up empty. No data at all. (If anyone can find the league average for first pitch swinging, please let me know what it is!) All I could find was a quote from the A's hitting coach that said their team goal was to swing at the first pitch "23-25%" of the time. Obviously, at least half the Pirates are well above that number. Frankly, it's unforgivable that Abraham Nunez should swing 53% of the time! Where is the
Pirates coaching? Do they even look at numbers like this? I doubt it.

Anyway, take a look at the last name on that list. Jason Kendall actually leads the league in this category. It's not surprising to find out that he is also among the league leaders in OBP (though maybe someone should remind him that too much of a good thing is sometimes a bad thing). With such a fine example to look up to, why are so many Pirates giving up easy outs by hacking at the first pitch? In my experience playing the game, these are the only reasons I had to swing at the first pitch:

1. There was a man in scoring position, 2 outs, and I guessed right on the pitch selection and location.
2. I felt like I was overmatched by the pitcher and would only get 1 chance to find something to hit in the at bat, and I guessed correctly on the first pitch.
3. The manager called for a 'hit and run.'

Other than that, I never swung at a first pitch. Swinging at the first pitch is basically giving up on drawing a walk. People will spout statistics that so and so hits .300 when they swing at the first pitch. So that sounds like a pretty good idea, especially when the same so and so only hits .280 overall, right? Not really, unless the player hits for a higher average on the first pitch than his overall OBP. Remember that swinging at the first pitch is basically giving up on drawing a walk. Sure, you may swing and miss and end up drawing a walk later on, but you are committing yourself to either putting the ball in play on the first pitch, or putting yourself down in the count 0-1. Not too many people walk down 0-1 in the count. So, unless your OBP is around .300 or below, it's self defeating to swing at the first pitch in most situations.

Personally, I find it hard to believe that a group of professional players has a less sophisticated approach to hitting than I did as a high school player. I suppose maybe these players are uncomfortable hitting with 2 strikes and therefore get impatient. But striking out bears little embarrassing stigma in today's game, so I don't know of what they are afraid. Being comfortable with 2 strikes is a learned skill, and it's the responsibility of the Pirates hitting instructors to help get these guys over the hump.

posted by bkopec @ 1:23 PM   0 comments