Friday, October 01, 2004

A funny thing happened on the way to the debate...

So many things have happened in the last week on which I intended to comment, for example Iyad Allawi's Bush/Cheney campaign tour '04. However, I haven't had a chance to comment for a myriad of reasons. Additionally, I'm suffering from a bit of campaign fatigue right now, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. It's getting harder and harder to discern the needle of real information amongst the haystack of rhetoric. Of course, elections are largely won or lost based on rhetoric rather than merit, but that's not the way I work. Anyway, I've made my mind up about the election a long time ago so I'm not sure why I don’t just tune it all out, but once again that's just not compatible with the way I work. Before this turns into too much of a diary diatribe, let me give my assessment of the debate. I think I achieved a unique perspective on the debates last night through a bit of chance. Let me explain.

Last night, I attended a charity function which ran a little late, so I missed the opening debate remarks, which was in full swing by the time I tuned in on my car radio. For the next 30-40 minutes, I listened to the debate on my way home. Realizing that nothing in the debate was going to change my mind, I really tried my best to listen objectively. Fortunately, I do have a talent for empathy, so I think I did a fair job of interpreting how the “average undecided voter” would perceive the debate. While I was listening on the radio, my perception was that Bush was winning the debate. Clearly, both candidates had been coached through their talking points, and if you've picked up a paper in the last 6 months, nothing said by either candidate should have surprised you. However, I felt that Kerry was coming off a bit too angry and a bit too confrontational. If you’ve followed Kerry recently, you wouldn’t have been surprised to see him come out firing, but I thought he went over the edge. It’s conventional wisdom that Gore lost the 2000 debates because he seemed annoyed and impatient at times. I started to feel that Kerry was losing this debate by exuding irritation and anger.

Furthermore, I felt that the points Kerry was making were too complex for the average swing voter. For example, at one point John Kerry reasoned that the Bush tax cuts and the cost of the war in Iraq had a negative effect on federal funding for local districts, thus leading many communities to cut back spending on emergency services and lay off police/firemen (a situation experienced here in Pittsburgh). Follow that? Odds are the average undecided voter didn’t. Even though this might be a powerful counter to Bush’s argument that the war in Iraq makes us safer, I doubt that many average swing voters want to think deeply enough to understand a reasoned argument. People who are undecided at this late date are probably not well informed on the issues, since well informed people probably have enough information to have made up their minds already. Furthermore, these types of arguments just aren’t effective in a world addicted to sound bites and headlines. These debates are usually won in the aftermath, through repeatable one-liners.

Eventually, I reached home and reluctantly started to watch the debate and a stunning thing happened. It occurred to me that my impression of the debate over the radio was completely turned around when I watched it on TV. Much like the famed Nixon/Kennedy TV debate, what wasn’t said was just as important as what was said. On TV, Bush’s mannerisms conveyed a sense of irritation and impatience, almost as though he didn’t anticipate anyone would have the gall to criticize his policies. Particularly telling were Bush’s facial expressions when Kerry was talking. I noticed some networks carried more split screen views than others, so many viewers may not have noticed it. But surely everyone noticed that Bush seemed irritable, even exasperated when he repeated the same answers time and time again. Meanwhile, Kerry seemed poised, pointed, and stately. While listening on the radio, Kerry’s comments came off as confrontational. But given a picture, they came off as appropriately pointed, with Bush looking uncomfortable having to continuously play defense.

Granted, it was more difficult to remain objective while watching on TV than while listening on the radio, but I’d have to score this debate a win for Kerry on all points. Unfortunately, it’s not the first impression that counts. We’ll have to wait for the spin cycle to complete before we know exactly what advantages were gained.

posted by bkopec @ 7:51 AM   2 comments