Wednesday, October 13, 2004

States in play

3 weeks from the election and several states are still in play. Don't look to the polls to find out which ones. Polls tell you more about the organization doing the polling than the candidates chances.

If you want to really know which states are too close to call, just look at where the candidates are still spending money. After all, who knows more about what's going on in the trenches than the campaigns themselves.

Bush's top 10 cities for spending:
Miami
Albuquerque
Reno
Grand Rapids
Madison
Green Bay
Harrisburg
Cleveland
La Crosse (WI)
Las Vegas

Kerry's top cities:
Miami
Albuquerque
Tampa
Columbus
Toledo
Cleveland
Green Bay
Reno
Orlando
Dayton

A couple of interesting things from this data (thanks to dailykos for it). First, it's a relief to see that Bush has written off California and Oregon. Put those states in Blue.

Second, it looks like Ohio is the lynchpin for the Dem election strategy. Likewise, Wisconsin for the GOP.

Lastly, I think it's particularly bad news for the Kerry that both candidates are still spending so much money in Florida. Obviously this election could come down to Fl again. And it is obviously very tight right now since both candidates are poring money into Miami. Why is this bad news? I think there is no way Kerry can come out of Florida with a tight victory, when you consider the organization the GOP already has in place to secure the election for Bush. Kerry needs to pull Florida by 3-4 solid percentage points, else it's Katherine Harris all over again.

posted by bkopec @ 11:53 AM   3 comments