Friday, November 19, 2004

Paul Meyer Q&A

I'm really trying hard to keep this site from turning into a 'bitching' blog, (though I would like it to become bitchin') especially when it comes to criticizing other Pittsburgh writers since we all have Bucco-gold at heart. For that reason, I've never once mentioned the Paul Meyer Pirates Q&A.

The sad fact is, I can barely bring myself to even read it, largely because most of the questions he selects are inane, and his answers usually reflect shallow old-school type thinking.

Take for example, the following excellent question posed in last week’s Q&A:

Q: Paul, do you think it's wise to pay Jose Mesa $3 million for next season? That's $2.5 mil plus the $500,000 option for 2006 which they'll surely shell out instead of the $4 mil option when he's 40. That is, if he's only 38 now. I thought he was older. They'll be paying Salomon Torres-Mike Gonzalez combined only half as much as Mesa… Why not rely on them and use that $3 mil for some much-needed starting pitching like Jon Lieber or for a desperately needed bat? Paying Mesa $3 mil in 2005 is like paying to have the same old team results as the past dozen years.
Charles Sergis of Los Angeles

MEYER: Charles, Mesa, according to the Pirate media guide, will turn 39 years old May 22. It does seem a rather large sum to pay Mesa, who most assuredly will not be with the Pirates in 2006, but one can argue that finding a closer for $2.5 million -- his 2005 salary plus the $500,000 buyout -- is a reasonable bargain. In addition, there's Mesa's value in the clubhouse and his ability to help, say, Gonzalez learn how to become a closer. That's worth something…

It's worth noting that Mesa did not perform as well after the All-Star break last season as he did before it. In the first half of the season,
he was 2-0 with a 2.45 earned run average and 22 saves in 37 games. In 36 2/3 innings, he allowed 41 hits -- just one home run -- and 11 walks and struck out 22. After the All-Star break, Mesa was 3-2 with a 4.13 earned run average and 21 saves. In 32 2/3 innings, he yielded 37 hits, including five home runs, walked and struck out 15. If Mesa in 2005 pitches as he did before the All-Star break in 2004, his price tag isn't that bad. And don't forget this little item -- the Pirates could trade him before July 31, get something decent in return, be out from under his salary and allow Torres/Gonzalez to close for the remainder of the 2005 season.

Ok, let’s break this down. I see at least 5 things wrong with Meyer’s answer:

1. Meyer sticks to the well-debunked party line that Mesa is only 39 years old next season. As I’ve said before, this means he had a son at age 13. Possible…but not likely. Age is a major factor in any contract, yet Meyer ignores this angle.

2. Meyer says it will be hard to find a closer for $2.5 million. Let me be the first to break the news…closer is not a position. Meyer makes it sound as if missing a closer is like missing a catcher. Closer, clean up hitter, is a description, not a position. Any pitcher is a potential closer, and the Pirates have plenty of better options than Mesa.

3. Meyer talks about Mesa’s value in the clubhouse, and proposes that he can help Gonzalez learn to be a closer. I can’t say what kind of leader Mesa is, but I can say that veteran leadership is not something you can or should spend a large percentage of your off-season budget for. Examples abound. And the mere suggestion that Mesa can help Gonzalez learn to be a closer is ridiculous. Is he going to show him how to throw a 9th inning curve ball instead of a 7th inning curve ball? Is there a trick to the post game handshake that I don’t know about? Keeping Mesa around is retarding Gonzalez’s development, not helping it, as it ensures Gonzalez stays in a situational role.

4. Meyer goes on to make the valid point, counter to his own argument, that Mesa faded down the stretch last year. He then says that if Mesa pitches like the first half of 2004, then he could justify his contract. I’ll agree with him that this contract presumes he will perform at the level he displayed in the first half of 2004, but how likely is he to do that? In the last 2 years, Mesa has had 2 disastrous half seasons, 1 poor half season, and 1 good half season. Littlefield rewarded him with a contract based on the most optimistic projections. Meyer makes no judgment as to Mesa’s likely level of performance.

5. Lastly, Meyer says the Pirates could always trade Mesa at the deadline for prospects. Of course, Meyer completely ignores the fact that the Pirates tried that ploy this year, only to have Mesa threaten the organization with retirement if he was traded, thus making a deal impossible. If it couldn’t be done this year, is it more likely to be easier to trade Mesa now that he is: a year older, making much more money, and not likely to repeat his first half performance?

So there you have it. Meyer goes on later in the Q&A to admit that he has been friends with Lloyd McClendon for years. Of course, that completely invalidates any “objectivity” he otherwise would pretend to have. Suddenly I remember why I don’t read the Q&A anymore.

posted by bkopec @ 7:39 PM   2 comments