Wednesday, February 16, 2005

Steroids and the HOF

So we know that Jose Canseco is never going to make an acceptance speech at Cooperstown. But the recent allegations could have a direct impact on a number of candidates. No matter what you may think about the whole steroid mess, it's seems as if a large number of the old school types who are the typical HOF voters have put a great deal of emphasis on the scandal.

I have no doubt that the recent allegations will cost Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire a number of votes. But both of those guys are going to be 1st ballot HOF unless proof comes out that they were injecting little leaguers with HGH.

Until the recent allegations came out, Rafeal Palmeiro was also a lock to be a 1st ballot HOFer. But if these allegations about him end up having any teeth, I think he'll have to wait before he eventually gets in. Similarly, Pudge Rodriguez, if he retired today, might not get in because of the allegations. But I think with a couple of more good seasons, he'll end up in the same boat as Palmeiro.

Ironically, the steroid allegations may actually help a couple of players reach the HOF. I believe that Fred McGriff's career will be seen in a whole new light. Rather than "the player who couldn't get to 500 in the home run era", he'll become "the player who almost got to 500 even without steroids." Voters looking to make a morality play out of the vote will likely look to reward someone like McGriff or Craig Biggio, who are free and clear of any steroid allegations.

In another interesting twist, I couldn't help but notice that it's suddenly become trendy to look favorably upon the character of Ken Griffey Jr. again, a 1st ballotter already anyway, as he is far removed from the steroid rumors.

It's amazing how quickly a 15 year career can be colored one way or the other by rumor and innuendo.

posted by bkopec @ 10:41 PM   5 comments