Setting expectations
Paul Meyer had a feature on Ty Wigginton yesterday in the PG. In it, Lloyd McClendon is quoted as saying:
"I really expect him to hit .280, hit 25 home runs and drive in 80 to 85 runs."
Now, those numbers certainly are POSSIBLE, but they would represent a big improvement and likely establish a new level of performance that we just haven't seen from Wigginton. This being the case, I don't think we can EXPECT those numbers.
Now, I don't know if Lloyd really expects that type of performance from Wigginton or if he is just trying to promote his player. But Paul Meyer certainly seems to buy into this projection. He goes so far as to put forth the following:
If Wigginton does that -- and he offered hope he can in September when he batted .282 with four home runs and 17 RBIs -- Pirates fans can overlook his 2004 stats.
and
The numbers were there for Wigginton before the trade. In 86 games with the Mets, he batted .285 with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs.
Both excerpts from Meyer's article are fine examples of
selective thinking. It's ridiculous to pick and choose small sample sizes from a larger population and assert that the smaller sample size represents the player's true level of performance. It would have been just as valid for Meyer to point to Wigginton's numbers after the trade and assert that .220/.306/.341 is his true level of performance.
Meyer isn't alone though. You see folks doing this all the time in sports. For example, if Team A goes 16-12 during the month of June, fans will expect the team to repeat that performance in July, even if they went 12-16 in May.
It's especially evident this time of year. How many times have you read that a certain player is expected to make the team based on a hot start in spring training? Guess what...that hot start is probably based on about 30 at bats. Meanwhile, everyone forgets that the player hit .240 in 300 at bats last season.
In the end, Wigginton will probably do pretty much what he did last season overall. The prediction here is: .275, 15 HR, 70 RBI.
3 Comments:
IF someone has time, or i will in MAy, can you collect data of T.Wiggs stats from AAA through last year and plot OPS through the years and do a forecast of OPS for this year? At a minimum plot what Mac thinks he'll do? Just considering the naive, TW won't reach those stats...another spin by a mgr who has to always have hope or lose his job.
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